Be warned: this is a futile exercise. Assessing the Oscar race in late August is like picking the best surgeon from a group of undergraduate biology majors. The real players haven't even arrived yet. Still, TheCroakingFrog knows its readers need rankings and analysis, and far be it from TheCroakingFrog to disappoint.

Brief Rules:

There's a surprisingly clever plot lurking within 2 Guns; unfortunately, it doesn't work as well in the actual movie as it does in the trailer. Bobby (Denzel Washington) and Stig (Mark Wahlberg) stroll onto screen as a couple of gun-totin', smack-talkin' gangsters, buying drugs, shooting chickens, and cruising up and down the US-Mexican border. But wait! Bobby secretly works for the DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration) and—whaddaya know—Stig soon holds a covert meeting with a handful of uniformed naval officers. Each oblivious to his partner's true colors, the two men plan a bank robbery, both expecting to surprise the other with an arrest (or kill, if necessary) once the deed is done. The bank robbed, the getaway accomplished, the men confront one another in the desert, only to realize they've been tricked. As it turns out, the con men themselves have been conned.

It's been hyped as the last great action film of the summer, which is a little like being the last month of regular season baseball or the last Republican primary debate before Super Tuesday. Haven't we seen enough? Fortunately, 
Elysium opens with four distinct advantages. First, it's not about a super hero. Second, it's directed by Neill Blomkamp, the young prodigy responsible for District 9. Third, it has a compelling dystopian premise. Fourth, it stars a white, male, reluctant hero who wears special armor and solves problems by shooting things.*

*Okay: three advantages.

There's a moment late in Jack Reacher—a sometimes stylish, mostly silly action flick starring Tom Cruise—where Mr. Reacher (Cruise) swerves around a corner as a dozen cop sirens wail a block away. He steps out of his still-rolling Chevy, striding into a crowd of onlookers just before half the precinct arrives on scene. As the cops surround the (now empty) sports car, the onlooking crowd gleefully conceals Reacher, shielding him from view and handing him a baseball cap to blend in. The manhunt foiled, the cops exchange confused looks as Reacher makes his getaway on a bus, all while his fellow travelers nod at him as if to say, "we got you." Never mind they've never met him nor have any idea what (surely heinous) crime he's committed. Gotta stick it to the cops.

The Place Beyond the Pines moves quickly—perhaps too quickly. There's a daredevil circus show, sentimental bike ride, revelation of fatherhood, dramatic job resignation, and several beats of a tense love triangle all before the film's 15-minute mark. The pace rarely slows. By minute 140, you'll have to pick what to remember—and just like the film's damaged characters—what you'll let yourself forget. It's a bit of a shame, really, given that Pines packs in so many exceptional moments. In his rush to tell a story about loss and regret, writer-director Derek Cianfrance often forgets to show us how it feels.